Long Bets: The Arena for Accountable Prediction

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The purpose of Long Bets is to improve long–term thinking. Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake.

In a layman term, the foundation acts as a middle man to account for the stakes of a bet or prediction between two parties. For example, a Predictor can put up a bet of $1000 stating that in 20 years time, soccer will be replaced by chess (boring) as the most popular sport in the world. Then, he will wait for a Challenger to challenge him to the bet. And in 20 years time, whatever the results, the total bets will be donated to any organisation up to the winner's discrete.

One of the featured bet announced recently is the one made by Warren Buffet where he predicts that,

“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”

The Challenger is made up of three people from Protege Partners, LLC which focus is on hedge fund.

You might ask, who is Warren Buffet and why is his bet featured here? Well have you been living in a cave?

Warren Edward Buffett (born August 30, 1930, in Omaha, Nebraska) is an American investor, businessman and philanthropist. He is regarded as one of the world's greatest stock market investors, and is the largest shareholder and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. With an estimated net worth of around US$62 billion, he was ranked by Forbes as the richest person in the world as of February 11, 2008.

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